Data showing the demand suppression attributed to the Coronavirus Pandemic. Demand suppression is calculated by taking the National Demand + Embedded Generation outturns and comparing this with the modelled demand assuming no Coronavirus pandemic given the same model parameters (day of week, temperature, etc.).

This is split into various periods of the day (timings are half-hour ending): + Night: 00:30 to 07:00 (Trough) + Morning: 07:30 to 13:00 (Peak) + Afternoon: 13:30 to 16:30 (Trough) + Peak: 17:00 to 20:30 (Peak) + Evening: 21:00 to 00:00 (Peak) It also shows the overall suppression (Whole Day).

Demand drops over bank holidays are capturing both the pandemic effect as well as the effect of the bank holidays themselves which under normal conditions cause drops in demand also. We do not have sufficient data to separate these effects.

This methodology works at a national level with a linear model using least squares regression and cannot be adapted for use in our regional time-based demand models.

In agreement with Ofgem & BEIS we are ceasing the publication and reporting of the demand suppression assessment with effect of 19 May 2021.

Data on demand suppression was being calculated using a comparison with pre-COVID demand levels, and we can no longer be sure that any changes are attributable to COVID alone.

We hope that you found the ESO's assessment of the demand suppression insightful and useful.