What does the data show?
The Drought Severity Index is not threshold based. Instead, it is
calculated with 12-month rainfall deficits provided as a percentage of the mean
annual climatological total rainfall (1981–2000) for that location. It measures
the severity of a drought, not the frequency.
12-month accumulations have been selected as this is likely to
indicate hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurs due to water
scarcity over a much longer duration (longer than 12 months). It heavily
depletes water resources on a large scale as opposed to meteorological or
agricultural drought, which generally occur on shorter timescales of 3-12
months. However this categorisation is not fixed, because rainfall deficits
accumulated over 12-months could lead to different types of drought and drought
impacts, depending on the level of vulnerability to reduced rainfall in a
region.
The DSI 12 month accumulations are calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000
(corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C
warming) and for global warming levels
of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial
(1850-1900) period.
What are the possible societal impacts?
The DSI 12-month accumulations measure the drought severity.
Higher values indicate more severe drought. The DSI is based on 12-month
rainfall deficits. The impacts of the differing length of rainfall deficits
vary regionally due to variation in vulnerability. Depending on the level of
vulnerability to reduced rainfall, rainfall deficits accumulated over 12 months
could lead to meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought.
What is a global warming level?
The DSI 12-month accumulations are calculated from the
UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5)
where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future
climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario,
the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the
pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C
(between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the
exploration of greater levels of warming.
The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C,
2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a
21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either
side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time
will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value
for the DSI 12-month accumulations, an average is taken across the 21 year
period.
We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission
scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that
RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current
international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several
global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in
the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and
the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on
the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions
suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either
be higher or lower than this level.
What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?
This data contains a field for each global warming level and two
baselines. They are named ‘DSI12’ (Drought Severity Index for 12 month
accumulations), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'
as per the description below. E.g. 'DSI12 2.5 median' is the median value for
the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not
field names e.g. 'DSI12 2.5 median' is 'DSI12_25_median'.
To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578
Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default
to ‘DSI12 2.0°C median’ values.
What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?
Climate models are numerical representations of the climate
system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or
group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different
starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes
gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.
For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate
ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, DSI 12 month accumulations
were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order
from lowest to highest for each location.
The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked
ensemble member.
The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked
ensemble member.
The ‘median’ field is the central value of the
ensemble.
This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members
indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread
of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger
the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.
‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline
periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the
projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and
recent past.
Useful links
This dataset was calculated
following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’
report.
Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).
Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal