What does the data show?
This data shows monthly
averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2050-2079 from the UKCP18 regional climate projections. The data is
for the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
Limitations of the data
We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of
grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the
variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for
informing decisions based on the data.
What are the naming
conventions and how do I explore the data?
This data contains a field for
the average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the
month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'. E.g. 'tas July Median' is the median
value for July.
To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578
Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will
default to ‘tas January Median’ values.
What do the ‘median’,
‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?
Climate models are numerical representations of the climate
system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or
group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different
starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes
gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.
For
this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To
select which ensemble members to use, the monthly
averages of temperature for 2050-2079 were calculated for each ensemble member
and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.
The ‘lower’ fields
are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.
The ‘upper’ fields
are the second highest ranked ensemble member.
The ‘median’ field is the central value of the
ensemble.
This gives a median value, and a
spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the
projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty
in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper
fields, the greater the uncertainty.
Data source
tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc
(median)
tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc
(lower)
tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc
(upper)
UKCP18 v20190731
(downloaded 04/11/2021)
Useful links
Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).
Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal