Please note: there was an error with the units for this dataset that was resolved on 17.10.2022Sea level rise is the primary mechanism by which we expect coastal
flood risk to change in the UK in the future. The amount of sea level rise
depends on the location around the UK and increases with higher emissions
scenarios. Here, we provide the extended exploratory time-mean sea level
projections to 2300, i.e. the local sea level rise experienced at a particular
location, produced as part of UKCP18.
These exploratory projections show sea levels continue to increase
beyond 2100 even with large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It should
be noted that these projections have a greater degree
of uncertainty than the 21st Century Projections and should therefore be treated as illustrative of the
potential future changes. They are designed to be used alongside the 21st
Century projections for those interested in exploring post-2100 changes. Note,
that we cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise, as on these time
horizons, the potential for additional sea level rise associated with dynamic
ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is even more uncertain.
Data is presented as the projected change (or 'anomaly') in the
time-mean sea level change relative to the average value for the period
1981-2000. Values are given in centimetres and are shown on a WGS84 grid
(approximately 12km) around the UK coastline.
For each grid box the time-mean sea level change projections are
provided for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP):
RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP8.5
A number of percentiles:
5th percentile50th percentile95th percentile
And on decadal timescales from 2010 to 2300.
The data is supplied so that each row corresponds to the
combination of a RCP emissions scenario and percentile value e.g. 'RCP45_50' is
the RCP4.5 scenario and the 50th percentile. This can be viewed and
filtered by the field 'RCP and Percentile'. The column (fields) corresponds to each
decade, the fields are named by sea level anomaly at year x, e.g. ‘2150 seaLevelAnom'.
Data is not filtered by default. Use filters to select an RCP and
percentile, and then 'change style' to set which year is displayed. Use 'show
table' to view all values.
For a comprehensive description of the underpinning science,
evaluation and results see the UKCP18 Marine Projections Report (Palmer et al, 2018).
What are the emission scenarios?
The extended exploratory time-mean sea
level projections were produced using some of the future emissions scenarios used
in IPCC AR5. These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which are based on the
concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. RCP2.6 is a
low emissions pathway, where radiative forcing peaks early and begins to fall
before 2100. RCP4.5 is an intermediate 'stabilisation' pathway, where radiative
forcing peaks before 2100 and begins to stabilize. RCP8.5 is a high emission pathway,
where radiative forcing continues to rise beyond 2100. Further information is available in the RCP Guidance on the UKCP18 website.What are
the percentiles?
The extended exploratory time-mean sea level projections correspond
to the IPCC AR5 “likely range”, which can also be interpreted as the 5th to 95th
percentiles. The 5th to 95th percentiles are based on the underlying model
distributions. The 50th percentile represents the central estimate amongst
model projections and the 5th to 95th percentiles represent the projection
range amongst models. It should be noted that there may be a greater than 10%
chance that the real-world response lies outside this range.
Data
source:
seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp26_ann_2007-2300.nc
seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp45_ann_2007-2300.nc
seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp85_ann_2007-2300.nc
UKCP18 v20190315 (downloaded 04/04/2022)
This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/