Saudi Arabia Renewables Installed and Planned Capacities

Saudi Arabia's renewable energy reports from various publishers uncovers reports discrepancies in both installed and planned capacities, reported by national and international data sources.

Installed Capacity: National data sources report a consistent installed capacity of 700 MW  by GASTAT, the Ministry of Investments SA (MISA), Vision2030, and the Ministry of Energy.  Water & Electricity Regulatory Authority (WERA) reports 800MW for projects Sakaka, Dumat, GDFI, Taqnia, SEC, and Aramco. Entities such as the SEC, K.A.CARE, Ministry of Economic Planning, Royal Commission for Riyadh City, and MOMRA have not reported installed capacities. Internationally, IRENA reports a relatively low installed capacity of 443 MW, while S&P Global's reports align with primary sources at 700 MW. Rystad and Bloomberg report significantly higher capacities of 1,450 MW and 3,347 MW, respectively.

Planned Capacity: Reports indicate broad range of planned capacities. GASTAT's 2022 reports 13,800 MW by 2026, while the Ministry of Energy's 2024 reports 9,370 MW by 2030. ARAMCO's 2023 reports a planned capacity of 12,000 MW by 2030. NEOM's 2023 reports targeting a 4,000 MW capacity to bolster green hydrogen production. Internationally, planned capacities vary extensively, from 9910 MW (EIA) to 58,700 MW (Rystad/S&P Global) by 2030, IRENA forecasting 25,000 MW by 2030, IEA forecasting 24,000 MW by 2028, and Bloomberg reports 45,195 MW by 2030.

Agencies like the OPEC, World Bank, and UNFCCC have not reported on renewable energy's planned or installed capacities. Data discrepancies stem from varied data granularity, publication coverage and reported frequency. #1 Saudi Arabia’s Renewables Data from National SourcesInstalled Capacity·       GASTAT reported a total installed capacity of 700 MW for 2021, split between 300 MW of solar and 400 MW of wind energy.  (year: 2022)·       Ministry of Investments SA (MISA)'s report indicated the same amount of capacity 700MW for 2022. (reported year is not mentioned)·       Vision2030 reported 700MW for 2022, combined solar and wind energy capacity. (reported year: 2023)·       Ministry of Energy (NREP) reported 700MW capacity for 2022. They mention Dumat Al-Jandal Wind 400MW and The Sakaka IPP Solar 300MW. ·       WERA reported 800 MW installed capacity.  (reported year: 2022)·       Saudi Green Initiative (SGI): reported 700MW for 2021, another report says since 2022, an additional 2,100 MW of renewable energy has been connected to the grid, bringing the total capacity of installed renewable energy to 2,800 MW (reported Dec 2023). Planned Capacity·       GASTAT forecasts a growth to 12,000 MW of solar capacity by 2026, while wind projects are expected to contribute 1,800 MW, totaling a combined future capacity of 13,800 MW across 17 projects (reported year: 2022)·       Ministry of Energy (MoE) has reported a total of 9,370 MW by 2030, split across 7,570 MW of solar and 1,800 MW of wind. Capacity planned across 14 projects (reported year: 2024)·       ARAMCO reports planned renewable capacity of 12GW by 2030. Suder 1.5GW capacity by Jan 2024 and Al Shuaibah 2.66GW by 2025; jointly by ACWA Power, PIF and ARAMCO (Annual report: 2023).  Note: 2022 report referred to Saudi Arabia NREP capacity of 58GW.·       NEOM reports a giga scale planned capacity of 4GW of renewable power from solar and wind energy to supply green hydrogen, NGHC will produce up to 600 tonnes per day of carbon-free hydrogen by the end of 2026. (reported: May 2023)·       The Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) has reported a planned solar capacity setup of 2670 MW by 2025 via 10 projects (reported year: 2020)·       Ministry of Investments Saudi Arabia’s reports 2690 MW of solar by 2030 and doesn’t report wind capacity. 11 projects covered in report.·       Saudi Green Initiative Vision2030’s aggregates to a total of 13,760 MW. 17 projects under development.  (reported date: 2023).   Saudi Green Initiative (SGI): A map includes solar and wind projects under development with generation capacities adding to 8,241MW. Report date not found. No renewables data was found in websites from ARAMCO, K.A.CARE, RCRC, Ministry of Economic Planning, and The Min. of Municipal RAH.  #2 Saudi Arabia’s Renewables Data from International SourcesInstalled Capacity·       IRENA 2023 report cited installed capacity of solar 440MW and wind 3MW for the year 2022.·       EIA: Did not report installed capacity explicit, however we can infer 1000 MW by 2023 based on projects listed.·       IEA reported: 2023 installed renewable capacity at 1.1GW. The evolution of renewable electricity generation by source (non-combustible) has steadily climbed from 2010 to 2021 to its current levels of 805 GWh of Solar and 409 GWh of wind respectively. ·       S&P Global reported: Saudi Arabia's current online renewable energy capacity as tendered by the renewable energy program is 700 MW, the energy ministry told S&P Global Commodity Insights.·       Enerdata reported Installed wind electrical capacity of 3.25 MW, and 408.8 GWh of electricity production from wind power in 2022. Installed solar electrical capacity (PV and CSP) of 439.89 MW, Solar electricity production of 804.84 GWh. Capacities in MW/GW not reported.·       Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported current levels of Installed Solar and Wind electricity production at 2.928 GW and .419 GW respectively.·       Rystad reported expected installations of renewable capacity to only reach 1.45 GW by end of 2023.  Planned Capacity·       IRENA 2019 report cited planned capacity of all renewable sources 25000 MW by 2030 (CSP 9500 MW, PV utility scale 10500 MW, PV roof-top 750 MW, wind 3500 MW, waste to energy 750 MW).·       IEA reported: 18 GW from solar and wind and 6 GW renewable dedicated to hydrogen  ·       EIA: Reported 4,870 MW capacity for 13 projects reported originally by GaStat in 2020 (including 3 projects in operation: Dumat Al Jandal - Aug 2021, Sakaka - June 2021, and Rabigh - April 2023). Reported 9910MW from 9 planned projects announced in 2022-2023 by Saudi Press Agency·       S&P Global reported: Saudi Arabia's renewable energy project, the 2.6 GW Al Shuaibah solar plant. In May, Saudi Arabia's Water and Electricity Holding Co. and ACWA Power agreed for 3 solar projects with 4.55 GW capacity. The Ar Rass 2, Saad 2 and Al Kahfah projects totaling capacities of 4.5 GW.  The next goal is set at 58.7 GW (40 GW of solar PV, 16 GW of wind and 2.7 GW of CSP) by 2030.·       Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported: 5.586 GW of wind electricity by 2030, and 39.606 GW of Solar PV electricity.·       Rystad reports Saudi Arabia’s target of over 58 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. The announced renewable capacity in the pipeline is 18 GW. Further searched reports from World Bank, OPEC, UNFCCC, Energy Aspects; No renewables data was reported as of Mar 2024 Appendix: Interactive Online Charts (Click this Link)

Note: Data across primary sources is in unstructured reports formats that were mined for data, exceptions were GAStat, WERA, Their table data didn’t match to reports. e.g. GAStat forecasts a growth to (12,313 in report vs 12,000 in table) MW of solar capacity by 2026, wind projects are expected to contribute (2,200 in report vs 1,800 in table) MW, totaling a combined future capacity of (14,513 – report vs 13,800– table) MW across 17 projects.

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